How depleted weapons stockpiles could affect the Iran conflict

How Depleted Weapons Stockpiles Could Affect the Iran Conflict

President Trump asserts the U.S. possesses an almost inexhaustible arsenal of critical armaments. Iran’s defense ministry counters by stating its nation is capable of enduring hostilities for longer than initially anticipated. Despite this, weapon stockpiles alone may not determine the conflict’s resolution—Ukraine has been outmatched by Russia in terms of firepower—but they remain a crucial element in shaping the battle’s trajectory.

The pace of operations has remained intense since the conflict began. Both sides are consuming munitions at a rate exceeding their production capabilities. According to the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), the U.S. and Israel have executed over 2,000 strikes, each requiring multiple weapons. Meanwhile, Iran has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones, though many have been intercepted. As the war persists, maintaining this level of intensity will grow increasingly difficult for all parties.

The Strain of Continuous Combat

Western officials note a decline in Iran’s missile output—dropping from hundreds on the first day to dozens currently. Before the war, Iran was estimated to hold more than 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles. However, precise weapon counts remain classified to prevent adversaries from gaining strategic insights.

Gen Dan Caine, America’s top commander, reported a 86% reduction in Iran’s ballistic missile launches since the fighting began. U.S. Central Command (Centcom) added that there’s been a 23% drop in missile activity within the past 24 hours. Iran’s Shahed drones, mass-produced pre-war, have been exported to Russia, which has used them effectively in Ukraine. The U.S. has also adopted the design, yet drone strikes have fallen by 73% since the conflict’s onset.

Strategic Adjustments and Air Superiority

With U.S. and Israeli jets now holding air dominance, most of Iran’s defenses have been neutralized. Its air force is no longer a credible threat. Centcom suggests the next phase will target Iran’s missile and drone launchers, along with its remaining stockpiles and production facilities. This shift may weaken Iran’s capacity to retaliate, though complete eradication of its arsenal remains challenging.

Iran spans an area three times that of France, allowing weapons to be concealed from aerial attacks. Historical precedents, such as Israel’s three-year bombing campaign against Hamas and the U.S. efforts in Yemen, show that air power alone cannot fully dismantle an adversary’s capabilities. The U.S. still relies heavily on precision-guided weapons, which are both costly and limited in quantity.

Resource Limits and Production Pressure

Trump has convened meetings with defense contractors to expedite weapon manufacturing, signaling potential strain on America’s resources. While closer-range strikes offer more flexibility, the U.S. has transitioned from using stand-off weapons—such as Tomahawk cruise missiles—to less expensive stand-in options like JDAM bombs. Mark Cancian, a former U.S. Marine colonel at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argues that this tactical shift enables sustained operations “almost indefinitely.”

“The longer the war continues, the fewer targets remain, leading to a gradual reduction in the tempo of attacks,” Cancian observed. “The U.S. has tens of thousands of JDAM bombs, but air defense systems are in shorter supply, making them vital in the early stages of the conflict.”