Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
On February 28, the United States initiated “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. In the following week, thousands of strikes were executed across the country, employing over 20 weapon systems across multiple domains. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was among the casualties in the initial wave of attacks, which were carried out jointly by US and Israeli forces.
The Trump administration has expressed confidence in the US military’s endurance. President Donald Trump claimed the nation possesses a “virtually unlimited” arsenal of weapons, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that Iran “has no hope” of outlasting American forces. However, questions arise about the sustainability of this campaign, particularly given reports of dwindling stocks of high-grade defensive missiles.
US Confidence in Military Capacity
“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” stated Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command in Florida. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.”
“We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” added General Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Despite these assurances, Trump subtly highlighted potential limitations. In a post on Truth Social, he noted that while medium and upper-medium grade munitions are at their best, “we are not where we want to be” in the highest-grade arsenal. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, emphasized the importance of this distinction, pointing out that top-tier missiles and interceptors are the most critical resources.
Since the conflict began, the US, Israel, and Iran have engaged in a relentless exchange of strikes. CENTCOM reported over 3,000 targets hit in Iran within the first seven days, while Iran retaliated with thousands of Shahed 136 drones and hundreds of missiles directed at US bases. This dynamic raises concerns about the efficiency of the US’s defensive strategy.
Cost Analysis and Strategic Concerns
Iran’s Shahed drones, costing between $20,000 and $50,000 each, have been a significant threat. Grieco noted that the cost of operating a fighter jet armed with AIM-9 missiles equals the price of a single Shahed drone. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange,” she observed.
“The United States has tested [that technology], it just hasn’t purchased it in sufficient numbers,” said Grieco, suggesting more cost-effective alternatives like interceptor drones could be adopted.
High-grade systems such as Patriot defense missiles, priced around $3 million each, are reserved for intercepting Iran’s ballistic missiles. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that stocks are being depleted rapidly. “At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots, and we’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now,” he estimated, noting that 200-300 have already been used.
Cancian also pointed out the time required to replenish these expensive interceptors. “Lockheed Martin delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in all of 2025,” he said. “If you went to the company today and said I want to buy one more Patriot, it would take at least two years for that Patriot to show up.”
Shorter-range weapons, including bombs, JDAM kits, and Hellfire missiles, appear more manageable. Cancian argued that “militarily, we could sustain it for a very long time” due to the availability of ground munitions. However, the high-grade arsenal remains a key factor in determining the campaign’s long-term viability.
On March 6, Trump convened with defense manufacturers, announcing that production of top-tier weaponry would be quadrupled. The White House claimed the agreement had been planned for weeks, but Grieco questioned its significance. “I found that to be like a non-announcement,” she said, noting many such deals had already been disclosed. Lockheed Martin’s commitment to increase Patriot PAC-3 production from 600 to 2,000 per year was previously public, underscoring the ongoing efforts to bolster stockpiles.
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