Why are World Cup underdogs doing so well?
Why are World Cup underdogs doing – In the ongoing 48-team World Cup, a surprising trend has emerged: lower-ranked teams are consistently challenging higher-ranked opponents, delivering thrilling results. Cape Verde, Curacao, Ghana, and South Africa—placed 64th, 81st, 65th, and 54th in the FIFA rankings, respectively—have managed to secure points against Spain (3rd), Ecuador (29th), England (4th), and South Korea (28th). This has raised questions about whether these early shocks are the result of chance or meticulously crafted strategies. A closer look at the games reveals a shared tactical approach that has allowed these teams to thrive against the world’s elite.
The Cape Verde-Spain Draw: A Tactical Masterclass
Cape Verde’s 0-0 draw against Spain has been hailed as the most significant upset of the tournament so far. The draw not only showcased the team’s resilience but also highlighted their tactical discipline. Despite Spain’s reputation for fluid attacking play, Cape Verde managed to neutralize their threat through a compact 4-5-1 formation. The key to their success lay in maintaining minimal gaps between their midfield and defensive lines, creating a fortress that Spain struggled to breach.
“PPDA stands for opposition passes allowed per defensive action. The higher the number, the less a team has been able to disrupt the opponent’s momentum.”
This metric becomes particularly telling in analyzing the Cape Verde-Spain encounter. Spain’s average PPDA during the match was a mere 5.9, while Cape Verde’s reached 51.2. The statistic underscores how effectively the smaller nation’s players held their shape, preventing Spain from gaining any advantage. Instead of spreading out to create space, Spain’s defenders attempted to pass the ball forward, expecting Cape Verde to react. However, the underdogs remained steadfast, using pressure to counteract the Spanish advance.
Their strategy was not just about resisting pressure—it was about anticipating it. By keeping their midfield line tightly packed, Cape Verde forced Spain into a reactive position. When the Spanish players pushed forward, the Cape Verde defenders stayed disciplined, closing off passing lanes and limiting Spain’s options. This compactness became a double-edged sword, as it allowed Spain to generate limited chances while making it difficult for them to execute their high-pressing style.
Ghana’s Battle with England: A Mirror of Cape Verde’s Approach
Similar tactics were evident in Ghana’s match against England, where the African team’s defensive setup mirrored Cape Verde’s success. England, under Tuchel, had relied on deep pressing to create openings in the opposition’s defense. Ghana, however, anticipated this by organizing themselves into a vertically tight 4-5-1 formation. Their strategy was to deny space rather than chase it, forcing England to work harder to break through.
One standout moment was Jordan Ayew’s positioning to mark England’s Elliot Anderson. While Ayew took the lead in man-marking, the rest of Ghana’s players maintained their compact shape, ensuring no gaps were left for England to exploit. This approach allowed them to control the tempo of the game, keeping England’s midfielders and attackers occupied without allowing them to settle into dangerous positions.
Their decision to hold back rather than advance was deliberate. By doing so, Ghana minimized the risk of being overwhelmed by England’s high-pressing style. The result was a game where England’s ability to press was stifled, and Ghana’s defense remained unbroken for much of the contest. This method proved effective, as it forced England to rely on long balls and counterattacks, which were less successful in the tight spaces Ghana had created.
Where the Strategy Falls Short: Lessons from Saudi Arabia’s Defeat
While some underdogs have thrived through compact formations, others have faltered when their tactics failed to adapt. Saudi Arabia’s loss to Spain exemplifies this. The team’s decision to adopt a low block—placing five defenders in the defensive line—was intended to protect their goal. However, this approach exposed weaknesses in their midfield positioning and width coverage.
Spain’s ability to switch the ball quickly highlighted the flaw in Saudi Arabia’s setup. The team’s back five lacked cohesion, often shifting too close to the ball-side of the pitch. This allowed Spain to exploit the spaces on the opposite flank, creating a numerical advantage. For instance, Lamine Yamal and Pedro Porro found themselves in two-against-one situations when the ball was moved to the right. The lack of defensive support left these Spanish attackers with clear paths to goal, resulting in a decisive third goal.
The contrast between Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia is striking. While the former used compactness to prevent the opposition from gaining momentum, the latter allowed their defenders to collapse inward. This meant that when Spain switched the ball, Saudi Arabia’s left midfielder and wing-back were isolated, unable to cover the space left behind. The failure to maintain defensive width became a critical weakness, leading to an easy goal and a loss.
The Science Behind the Strategy: Compactness and Control
The success of teams like Cape Verde and Ghana is not just about bravery—it’s about precision. Both teams employed a strategy of defensive compactness, ensuring that their formations minimized the space available to opponents. This tactic forced high-pressing teams into a difficult position, as they were unable to create the numerical advantage needed to break through.
However, the effectiveness of this strategy depends on execution. In the case of Cape Verde, their ability to hold their shape was remarkable, even as Spain tried to provoke a reaction. The same discipline was seen in Ghana, where players focused on preventing England from gaining control rather than chasing the ball. This proactive defense allowed them to absorb pressure and counterattack when the opportunity arose.
The use of PPDA further illustrates how these teams have managed to outmaneuver their opponents. By allowing fewer passes in critical moments, they reduced the likelihood of being caught in transition. For example, in the first 15 minutes of Ghana’s match against England, their PPDA was 62, indicating a high level of defensive control. This statistic suggests that underdogs are not just relying on luck but on calculated tactics to frustrate the opposition.
As the tournament progresses, it will be interesting to see how these strategies evolve. Some underdogs may choose to increase their pressing intensity as the games become more competitive, while others may refine their formations to better counter high-pressing teams. The key to success lies in maintaining balance—too much compactness can stifle creativity, while too much aggression can lead to defensive errors.
The performance of these lower-ranked teams has already rewritten the narrative of the World Cup. They have proven that tactical discipline and strategic execution can outweigh traditional rankings. As the tournament unfolds, the lessons from their success will undoubtedly influence the way teams approach their matches, challenging the dominance of the world’s top squads and reshaping the landscape of international football.
