Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
US President Donald Trump and his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, have expressed confidence in the nation’s military readiness for prolonged conflict with Iran. Trump claimed the United States possesses a “virtually unlimited” stock of weapons, while Hegseth emphasized that Iran has “no hope” of enduring a sustained campaign. However, concerns about limited reserves of high-grade defensive systems have raised questions about the feasibility of such a long-term strategy.
The Operation and Initial Strikes
Operation Epic Fury was initiated on February 28, marking the start of a massive campaign against Iran. In the subsequent week, the US executed thousands of attacks, utilizing over 20 weapon systems across air, land, and maritime domains. The operation’s first phase saw the elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, through a joint US-Israeli strike. Despite Trump’s assertion that the war could last four to five weeks, he hinted at a potential extension, stating the US “has the capability to go far longer than that.”
The Cost of Precision Strikes
While the US military has demonstrated its capacity to deliver high-precision munitions, the financial toll of maintaining such operations is significant. According to Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, the cost of operating a fighter jet for an hour is equivalent to the price of a single Shahed-136 drone, which costs between $20,000 and $50,000 to produce. “It’s not efficient,” Grieco noted, “It’s not a favorable cost exchange.” She suggested that lessons from Ukraine, where cheaper alternatives like interceptor drones have been deployed, could offer a more sustainable model.
“We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” said Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command in Florida on March 5. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.”
“We have sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand, both on the offense and defense,” added General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Patriot Missiles and Supply Concerns
High-grade defensive systems, such as the Patriot missile, are critical for countering Iran’s ballistic threats but are more costly and scarce. Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies highlighted that Patriot stocks, initially around 1,000, have been rapidly depleted. He estimated that 200-300 of these advanced interceptors have already been expended, with production delays complicating future resupply. “If you approached Lockheed Martin today and asked for another Patriot, it would take at least two years to deliver,” Cancian explained.
In contrast, shorter-range weapons like bombs, JDAM kits, and Hellfire missiles appear more abundant. Cancian stated, “Militarily, I think we could sustain it for a very long time. We have the ground munitions to do that.” Yet, the balance between offensive and defensive capabilities remains a key challenge.
Production Pledges and Skepticism
On March 6, Trump met with defense manufacturers, announcing plans to quadruple production of top-tier weaponry. The White House noted the meeting had been scheduled for weeks, but Grieco questioned the novelty of the agreements. “I found that to be like a non-announcement,” she remarked, “since many of these deals had already been announced in recent months.” The rapid depletion of resources underscores the urgency of scaling up production to meet the demands of prolonged conflict.
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