How long can Iran continue the war?

How Long Can Iran Continue the War?

Iran’s conflict with the United States and Israel has seen it operate independently, without significant support from allies. The regime’s strategy centers on its missile and drone capabilities, with no indication of yielding. Officials have emphasized that Iran is prepared for an extended struggle, as stated by Ali Larijani, secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council, during the third day of the US-Israeli assault on Iran.

“We will defend ourselves, whatever the cost,” Larijani reiterated, aligning with statements from other Iranian leaders since the conflict began. This resolve underscores the country’s determination to withstand the pressure.

Since February 28, the US and Israel have launched a coordinated, large-scale military campaign targeting Iranian leaders and key government installations. Despite the loss of several high-ranking officials, the theocratic government remains stable. In response, Tehran has launched missiles and drones at Israeli and Persian Gulf targets, including US bases across the region. The United Arab Emirates reported being hit by hundreds of Iranian projectiles in recent days.

Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the US Central Command, noted that by March 4, Iran had deployed over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones. He accused Tehran of targeting civilians in these attacks. However, the exact number of missiles and drones Iran possesses is still uncertain, according to an unnamed weapons expert.

At the war’s start, the Israeli military estimated Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile to be around 2,500. This number has likely dropped due to both the regime’s use of missiles and US-Israeli strikes on storage sites. Satellite images circulating online suggest attacks on missile bases in Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad, and northern Tabriz, with collapsed tunnels indicating underground facilities were damaged.

“We are also seeing that mobile missile launchers are being pursued with great vigor,” the expert added. “What was very difficult five years ago is now possible thanks to technological advances. Still, the question remains as to how many of these systems have actually been destroyed.”

Iran is believed to have the capacity to rapidly increase drone production. Leaked Russian documents claim the country can manufacture approximately 5,000 drones monthly. These Shahed drones are launched from simple scaffolds assembled quickly and cost Iran several thousand dollars each, compared to US-made Patriot interceptors priced at up to $3 million.

An analysis by the New York Times, using satellite imagery and verified videos, indicates Iran targeted US military bases in the Middle East with short-range missiles and drones over the weekend and Monday. While the extent of damage to US communication systems is unclear, the strikes suggest an intent to hinder coordination and information flow.

“Iran will try to prolong the war and is playing for time,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of Economics. “The leadership has had time to plan and coordinate its actions. I think they are preparing for a long war,” he added, highlighting the regime’s focus on resilience—its ability to endure, adapt, and continue fighting despite the challenges.