Iran war: Why is Russia not coming to Tehran’s aid?

Iran War: Why Is Russia Not Coming to Tehran’s Aid?

The Iranian government, facing limited international backing, has depended heavily on Moscow’s backing during the current wave of US-Israeli attacks. Yet, the support from Russia has fallen short, leaving Tehran feeling let down. Just hours after the strikes began on Saturday, Russia’s UN delegate, Vassily Nebenzia, labeled the actions as “an unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state.”

Russia and Iran have shared a strong alliance, with Moscow viewing Tehran as a strategic partner. A shift in power in Iran could impact Russia’s geopolitical and economic standing. Despite this, Moscow hasn’t launched a direct intervention. Nikita Smagin, a Middle East expert based in Azerbaijan, explained that Russia and Iran are connected through key economic projects. “The North-South transport corridor is one such initiative,” he said. This 7,200-kilometer network, also passing through Azerbaijan, was agreed upon in 2000 by Russia, India, and Iran. The Gulf Research Center notes that 75% of the project is already complete.

Russia has also relied on Iran’s military contributions, particularly since 2023. Shahed drones, supplied by Tehran, have played a significant role in the Ukraine conflict, according to Julian Waller, a Russia analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses. “These drones reshaped the war’s dynamics,” Waller told DW. Even though Russia has since developed its own models, he added, Iran’s early involvement was vital.

While the partnership isn’t based on shared ideology, Smagin highlighted that Moscow sees Tehran as a dependable ally. “Russian politicians don’t especially favor Iran,” he said. “However, they recognize its value as a strategic partner, especially under Western sanctions. Unlike Turkey or Egypt, which might suspend trade with Russia if pressured, Iran remains a consistent collaborator.”

Gregoire Roos, a Chatham House expert, suggested that Iran has even served as Moscow’s mentor. “Iran’s experience in navigating sanctions has been invaluable to Russia,” he said. This expertise has helped Moscow evade Western pressures. Yet, despite these ties, experts like Mojtaba Hashemi argue that Russia’s support has been limited. “Tehran anticipated more than just verbal backing,” Hashemi said. “They sought tangible military and political assistance, which Moscow hasn’t fully delivered.”

Some analysts, like Mohammad Ghaedi of George Washington University, believe the Iranian leadership expected Moscow’s support. “Doubts about relying on Russia have long existed in Tehran,” Ghaedi noted. He referenced former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s remark that “Russia has always sold out the Iranian nation,” and President Masoud Pezeshkian’s acknowledgment that “countries we considered allies failed to assist us during the war.”

Roos also pointed out potential benefits for Russia from a prolonged conflict. “A protracted war could reduce the visibility of Zelenskyy’s struggles,” he said. “Washington would face challenges in sustaining another front, both diplomatically and militarily.” This strategic calculation might explain Moscow’s cautious stance in the current crisis.