A free Iran is their shared dream. But the diaspora remains torn on the best path forward.

A Free Iran is Their Shared Dream. But the Diaspora Remains Torn on the Best Path Forward

Los Angeles has become a stage for contrasting emotions within the Iranian diaspora. On one side, a group of Iranian Americans gathered outside City Hall to protest what they called an unapproved war, shouting slogans like “Stop the war in Iran” and “We the people don’t want war.” Meanwhile, in Tehrangeles, a vibrant Westside neighborhood, another crowd of the same community celebrated the potential end of theocratic rule, waving American, Israeli, and Iranian flags and dancing to energetic music. The event marked the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, in a U.S.-Israeli strike, which some saw as a turning point for regime change.

A Spectrum of Loyalties and Fears

As violence intensifies across the Middle East, the Iranian diaspora is experiencing a mix of hope and apprehension. For many, the country’s theocratic regime, which emerged after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has long been a source of discontent. Abbas Milani, an Iranian studies expert at Stanford University, noted that some are so disillusioned with the government that they believe “regime change at any cost, even if it means destroying parts of the country.” Others, however, seek to replace the leadership without sacrificing the peace.

“The images of destruction and the joyous support for war have created more tension than usual,” Milani said. “It will get harder before it dissipates.”

The recent attack on Iran has sparked fierce online debates. Supporters of military action are often tagged as “Zionists,” a term that has taken on a negative connotation since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, assault on Israel. Anti-war advocates, in turn, are accused of aligning with the regime. This polarization has deepened as the government imposes an internet blackout, cutting off communication for many families and amplifying the emotional divide.

Leadership Uncertainty and Generational Fault Lines

With Khamenei’s death, speculation has grown about his son Mojtaba’s potential succession. Analysts suggest that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful force in Iran, could consolidate its influence if the current conflict continues. At the same time, Iranians are divided over who should lead the nation’s future. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah, is a popular choice for some, while others remain cautious about restoring ties to the monarchy.

President Donald Trump’s comments on Iran have further complicated matters. He expressed a desire to remove the leadership structure entirely and mentioned having potential candidates for a “good leader.” However, a recent NBC News poll revealed that 54% of potential voters disapprove of his approach to the conflict, mirroring the split within the Iranian diaspora itself.

A Community in Flux

Last year, the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a nonpartisan group, partnered with YouGov to survey the community. The results showed 53% of Iranian Americans opposed U.S. military action against their homeland. Jamal Abdi, NIAC’s president, noted that a new poll will soon provide updated insights. Meanwhile, the Iranian Diaspora Collective, an Instagram account with over 81,000 followers, emphasized the community’s diversity: “Millions will never share the same ideology or identity, and that plurality is the strength of any free society.”

A Los Angeles-based pastor, Ara Torosian, who fled Iran in 2010, shared his perspective. He described the current turmoil as a painful but necessary reckoning, comparing it to decades of suffering under the regime. While he lamented the destruction of historical sites and the loss of innocent lives, particularly children, he also viewed the upheaval as a step toward freedom. “The pain people are enduring now rivals generations of oppression,” he said, adding that he had been jailed and beaten for possessing Christian symbols in Tehran.

Nowruz and the Road Ahead

As the Persian New Year, Nowruz, approaches, it symbolizes renewal — but for many Iranians, it also represents uncertainty. The holiday, traditionally a time of celebration, now feels tinged with anxiety. With the death of Khamenei, rumors swirl about his son’s possible role in the next phase of Iran’s political landscape. Whether the country moves toward a free society or deeper instability remains unclear, as the diaspora continues to grapple with the best way to achieve its shared vision.