Armenia’s pro-West government wins election despite Russian pressure

Armenia's pro-West government wins election despite Russian pressure

Armenia s pro West government wins - Following a pivotal vote that underscored the nation's political direction, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s centrist Civil Contract Party emerged victorious in Sunday’s general election. The outcome, with 49.8% of the total votes, marks a significant shift in the South Caucasus nation’s trajectory, as it aims to strengthen its alignment with Western nations. This election, held in a country of three million people, was seen as a crucial moment for Armenia’s future, especially after its military setback against Azerbaijan in 2023. Pashinyan’s party managed to secure over 50% of the vote, cementing his leadership in the face of growing economic challenges posed by Russia, its largest trading partner and longstanding ally.

A test of Western aspirations

The results reflect a public sentiment favoring continued engagement with European institutions, even as Russia exerted pressure through economic and political means. Pashinyan, who has governed since 2018, celebrated his triumph on Monday, stating that the Armenian people had chosen “peace, regional prosperity, and cooperation.” His victory comes amid a backdrop of international scrutiny, with European powers like France and the EU extending recognition to his administration. The election drew widespread attention, highlighting Armenia’s strategic position between East and West.

“Armenian people voted for peace, regional prosperity and cooperation,” Pashinyan said on Monday.

Russia, however, contested the outcome, with its foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova claiming “unprecedented pressure” was applied to opposition groups and accusing Western actors of “interference.” She also argued that the vote revealed “extreme polarization” within Armenian society, a claim that contrasts with the government’s narrative of unity. Despite these challenges, Pashinyan’s party retained its majority, signaling a continued push toward Western integration.

Domestic support wanes, but the victory holds

Pashinyan’s domestic support has declined from 54% in 2021 to approximately 30% currently, according to recent polls. Yet, the election results indicate that his vision for closer ties with the West still resonates with voters. Out of 19 parties and alliances that contested the vote, only a few secured enough backing to enter the national assembly. Turnout reached 59%, with many citizens casting ballots despite the ongoing challenges.

The pro-Russian blocs, including the Prosperous Armenia party led by businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, the Strong Armenia Alliance under Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, and the Armenia Alliance headed by former President Robert Kocharyan, collectively garnered 33.1% of the total votes. While these groups represent a significant portion of the electorate, they were unable to challenge Pashinyan’s dominance. Their pro-Moscow stance, however, remains a critical counterpoint to the government’s Western aspirations.

Russian economic leverage and political influence

Russia’s pressure on Armenia has been both economic and geopolitical. Last month, President Vladimir Putin highlighted the financial risks of closer Western ties, noting that European gas prices exceed $600 per 1,000 cubic metres, compared to Russia’s $177.50. This disparity underscores the economic stakes for Armenia, which relies heavily on Russian imports. In the weeks leading up to the election, Moscow imposed a ban on exports of Armenian goods, including flowers, mineral water, brandy, and fresh produce, further tightening its grip on the nation’s economy.

Pashinyan’s efforts to distance Armenia from Moscow include legislative moves to formalize EU accession talks and accelerating peace agreements with Azerbaijan, brokered by the United States. His policies have earned him the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump, who praised the progress in the region. Additionally, Pashinyan hosted a landmark summit in Yerevan, uniting EU leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, reinforcing his commitment to multilateral cooperation. Yet, despite these gestures, Armenia has not yet achieved EU candidate status, and full membership remains a distant goal.

Divided loyalties and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The peace deal with Azerbaijan, which resolved the 2023 military conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, remains a contentious issue among Armenians. While 44% of the population supports the agreement, 41% oppose it, reflecting deep societal divisions. Pashinyan’s critics accuse him of prioritizing stability over territorial claims, particularly after he chose not to campaign for the release of former Nagorno-Karabakh leaders imprisoned in Azerbaijan. This decision has fueled skepticism about his commitment to the enclave’s cause.

Still, the election results suggest that many Armenians value the economic relief and regional stability the peace deal has brought. Pashinyan’s ability to balance these priorities will be crucial in the coming months. His administration has also emphasized the importance of maintaining membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), acknowledging that a complete break with Russia may not be feasible in the short term. “We will continue the course of rapprochement with the West, but we will also continue our participation and membership in the Eurasian Economic Union,” he reiterated on Monday.

A quiet capital and enduring challenges

In Yerevan, the capital, the election’s impact was subdued. Many citizens went about their daily routines, with the political excitement lingering in the background. Lala, a 70-year-old gardener tending to roses in Republic Square, voiced her endorsement of Pashinyan’s leadership. “I am excited. He is the one who is taking us to peace,” she told the BBC. Her sentiment captures the broader mood of a population navigating complex geopolitical choices.

While the victory is a step forward, Armenia’s path to Western integration is fraught with obstacles. The country must now address internal divisions, manage its economic dependencies on Russia, and navigate the delicate balance between EU aspirations and EAEU membership. As the new parliament convenes, the focus will shift to implementing Pashinyan’s agenda, with the hope that his policies will strengthen Armenia’s position in the region and secure its place on the global stage. The outcome of this election, however, remains a testament to the resilience of the Armenian people in the face of external pressures and internal debates.