Big fall in oil, gas and cargo ships taking US-backed Hormuz route after new strikes
Maritime Disruption Deepens as US-Iran Tensions Reshape Hormuz Navigation
Big fall in oil gas and cargo - Commercial shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz has experienced a dramatic decline following renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran. The latest wave of reciprocal attacks, triggered by the assault on three commercial vessels earlier this week, has caused shipping traffic to plummet to levels not seen since the conflict initially erupted.
According to maritime intelligence provider Kpler, only twenty-three tankers and cargo vessels managed to navigate the critical Gulf waterway on Wednesday. This represents a sharp contraction from the forty-seven ships that successfully transited the same route just seven days prior. The disruption has been particularly acute for vessels utilizing the American-recommended passage through Omani territorial waters.
Historical Context and Pre-Conflict Norms
For generations, commercial vessels have enjoyed unrestricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor through which more than twenty percent of global oil and gas supplies flow. The waterway also serves as a crucial conduit for fertilizer shipments and other essential commodities that sustain international trade. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, the Joint Maritime Information Center recorded an average of one hundred and thirty-eight daily crossings through the strait.
The situation deteriorated rapidly following the initial American and Israeli military operations against Iranian targets on February 28. Iranian forces effectively sealed the strait by targeting vessels attempting passage and deploying naval mines, while the United States implemented a comprehensive blockade restricting all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports.
The June Agreement and Its Aftermath
A diplomatic breakthrough materialized on June 17 when both nations signed a memorandum of understanding designed to halt the escalating conflict. The agreement incorporated provisions for reopening the strait, with Washington committing to dismantle its naval blockade and reduce economic sanctions on Iranian petroleum exports. Following these concessions, maritime traffic experienced a temporary resurgence, reaching a peak of seventy-two vessels on June 24.
However, underlying tensions regarding navigation rights persisted throughout the negotiations. Iran maintained that it possessed sovereign authority to regulate maritime movement through the strait and implement transit fees for commercial vessels. American officials and their Gulf allies, alongside European and Asian governments, consistently opposed these measures, insisting that passage should revert to the free and open system that existed before the conflict.
Competing Route Systems and Recent Escalation
Following the diplomatic settlement, Iranian authorities established a system of designated lanes through the northern portion of the waterway, adjacent to Iranian coastline. Iran's supreme military command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, subsequently declared that this Iranian-determined corridor represented the sole secure passage for commercial shipping and petroleum tankers.
Conversely, the JMIC advocated for an alternative southern route through Omani waters. Kpler's tracking data revealed that utilization of this Omani corridor reached twenty-eight vessels on June 25, surpassing traffic through the Iranian route. Nevertheless, stability proved elusive. On June 25 and 27, two additional ships operating in Omani waters sustained damage, prompting Iranian warnings that all maritime traffic must exclusively utilize Iranian-approved corridors.
President Donald Trump characterized the incidents as a "foolish violation" of the truce agreement, leading to American military strikes against Iranian positions. Iran retaliated by accusing the United States of breaching the interim arrangement and confirmed that it had targeted facilities associated with American forces operating in the region.
Current Situation and Future Outlook
The most recent wave of attacks has devastated traffic on the American-recommended Omani route. All three vessels targeted this week—a Qatar-owned liquefied natural gas tanker, a Saudi-owned crude oil carrier, and a Liberia-flagged crude tanker—were navigating near the Omani corridor when they came under fire. According to Kpler, maritime traffic through this route has effectively ceased, with zero vessels transiting on Wednesday, compared to just three the previous day and an average of approximately ten daily crossings in the week preceding the attacks.
Martin Kelly, a senior intelligence analyst at EOS Risk Group, anticipates that the current escalation will follow historical patterns. "There will now be a bit of back and forth between the US and Iran before they make friends again, shipping will peak and trough cautiously until Iran attacks another ship and the cycle starts again," he observed.
The June 17 memorandum of understanding stipulated that Tehran would employ "its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days." Additionally, the agreement committed Iran to "conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz." Tehran has interpreted these provisions as establishing its authority over strait navigation, setting the stage for continued diplomatic friction as both sides seek to assert their maritime interests.