Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large

The experience of an American president inciting a rebellion, only to withdraw support when the movement gains momentum, is one I’ve witnessed firsthand. In 1991, on February 15, the first President George Bush delivered a speech at a Massachusetts factory where Patriot missiles were being assembled. These interceptors, hailed as a breakthrough in warfare during the first Gulf War, remain critical in Ukraine and the ongoing conflict with Iran. At the time, the military operation in Kuwait, known as Desert Storm, was in full swing, with coalition air forces bombarding Iraqi forces and their cities. Tens of thousands of troops were stationed near the borders, preparing for the ground assault nine days away. I was in Baghdad, covering the war, when the Americans struck a shelter in Amiriyah, killing over 400 civilians—mostly children, women, and elderly individuals. The US and UK claimed it was a command center, but I saw the bodies and the smoldering ruins, knowing it was a tragic mistake.

A Pivotal Moment in 1991

Bush visited the Patriot factory to commend the workers who crafted a weapon deemed a miracle. In a brief address, he urged Saddam Hussein to withdraw from Kuwait in compliance with UN resolutions. The Gulf War had the backing of the Security Council, unlike the current situation. Yet, his next words carried heavier weight.

“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop… and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside.”

The workers cheered, and the president returned to rallying public support for the war. However, some Iraqis believed him. After the Iraqi army was pushed out of Kuwait, a truce kept Hussein in power. This allowed the Shia in the south and Kurds in the north to rise in rebellion, believing the US would back their cause.

Consequences of Inaction

The coalition nations, including the US and UK, observed the revolts but did not intervene. The Iraqi regime, weakened but not defeated, used its remaining helicopters to launch a brutal counteroffensive, killing thousands of Kurds and Shia rebels. They underestimated the US’s commitment to the uprising. By the time the humanitarian crisis in the Kurdish north became undeniable, with fathers bringing small wrapped bodies of their children to makeshift shelters, the Americans were compelled to act. A large rescue operation was launched, but the Shia in the south faced a different fate. The aftermath of the first Gulf War lingered, with air patrols enforcing no-fly zones and permanent bases established in Saudi Arabia. It was there that a young Osama Bin Laden, incensed by foreign forces occupying holy sites, began forming Al Qaeda.

The second Gulf War in 2003 marked the end of Saddam Hussein’s rule, a move widely seen as fulfilling the legacy of the first president’s vision. Iran benefited from this shift, as its regional influence grew. The current conflict aims to reverse that progress, targeting Iran’s military and nuclear ambitions. Israel, in particular, views these efforts as a threat. Trump’s decision to engage in a joint venture with Israel underscores the risk of repeating history, where a call for rebellion was followed by insufficient backing, leaving the people of Iran to face the consequences alone.