The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?

The US Blockade of Iran: A Risky Strategy. What Are the Outcomes?

The US military is equipped to establish a blockade in the Gulf, but the effectiveness of this move remains uncertain. Analysts are closely observing whether the action will achieve its intended goals or simply add another layer of tension to the ongoing conflict.

A Feasible Option with Strategic Advantages

Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, a retired US officer, told the BBC that a blockade is a viable strategy. “It’s less dangerous than pushing back Iranian forces directly,” he explained, noting that the approach allows warships to operate safely beyond Iranian waters.

“I do think it’s doable,” said Montgomery. “And it’s certainly less risky than the alternative, which would have been to forcibly push back the Iranians and create the conditions for a convoy.”

Risks and Assets in Play

While options like seizing Kharg Island or escorting convoys through the Strait of Hormuz were considered, they carried higher risks. US forces would have been vulnerable to Iranian missile strikes, drone attacks, and fast-attack boats. Mines in the water also posed a threat.

Conversely, a blockade enables the navy to monitor vessels near Iranian ports from a secure position in the Gulf of Oman. “There’s less risk in this than there is in the very confined area of the Strait,” Montgomery added.

Past Examples and Current Tactics

Recent blockades of Venezuela and Cuba have showcased the US’s ability to implement such measures. The seizure of the Russian oil tanker Marinera in the northern Atlantic highlighted the scalability of this strategy. US Central Command (Centcom) claims the latest blockade will target all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports, but ships at other ports will remain unaffected.

“They believe they can outweigh this,” said David Satterfield, a former US special envoy. “The US will feel pain from oil prices, and Gulf states will pressure Washington to reopen the Strait.”

Iran’s Resilience and Economic Impact

Iran has demonstrated its ability to sustain oil exports through the Gulf despite US and Israeli attacks. A successful blockade could disrupt this flow, cutting off critical revenue. However, Iran may perceive the move as manageable, especially given the potential for rising global oil prices.

Shipping experts are tracking the movement of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz to gauge the blockade’s effect. “I’m literally looking at ships that are going through now,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence analyst. “As a seafarer, I’d be very worried.”

A Diplomatic and Economic Crossroads

Recent activity in the Strait has seen a surge in traffic, with around 30 traceable transits recorded in the past 48 hours. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, noted that this was the busiest period since the war began in late February. “It looked like a flurry of vessels trying to get out,” he observed.

With a ceasefire in place, the Iran conflict has shifted into a contest of blockades. China’s involvement in diplomatic talks in Islamabad may signal a broader effort to apply pressure on the US, leveraging its reliance on Iranian oil imports.

Donald Trump’s latest strategy is a calculated risk. Its consequences could ripple across the global economy, depending on how effectively it disrupts Iran’s operations and whether the target country can withstand the pressure.