The US blockade of Iran is a gamble. Will it work?

The US Blockade of Iran: A Risky Move. Can It Pay Off?

Strategic Feasibility

The US military possesses the means to establish a naval encirclement of ships entering and exiting the Gulf. Yet, the real question remains: what is the goal? Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, speaking to the BBC, acknowledged the operation’s achievability. “It’s certainly less dangerous than the alternative, which would have involved a direct confrontation with Iranian forces, potentially leading to a convoy crisis,” he remarked.

“I do think it’s doable,” said retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. “And it’s certainly less risky than the alternative, which would have been to forcibly push back the Iranians and create the conditions for a convoy.”

Operational Assets

With special forces, helicopters, and fast boats at its disposal, the US navy is equipped for such a mission. The strategy of halting vessel traffic offers a safer approach compared to the narrow confines of the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks could be more immediate. Recent actions against Venezuela and Cuba have shown the US’s ability to execute similar operations. In January, the seizure of the Russian oil tanker Marinera in the Atlantic demonstrated the reach of these tactics.

Economic Impact

Centcom outlined the latest blockade as a measure targeting all ships accessing Iranian ports, while exempting those using foreign harbors. Humanitarian vessels, it added, would be allowed to pass but subjected to checks. The logic of the move is clear: Iran has sustained its oil exports since the conflict began, securing billions while restricting other Gulf nations. A successful blockade could cut this supply chain, further damaging Iran’s finances.

“Centcom says the latest blockade ‘will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas,’ but that vessels using non-Iranian ports will not be stopped.”

Resilience and Resistance

Despite the US’s efforts, Iran’s ability to endure prolonged pressure remains a concern. “They believe they can outweigh this,” said David Satterfield, a former US special envoy. “The US will feel the pain of rising oil prices, and Gulf states will push for the Strait to remain open.” The Iranian regime, he noted, thinks it can outlast its adversaries. “They think they’ve won,” he added. “The Iranians believe… that they can absorb more pain for a longer period than their opponents can.”

Current Observations

Maritime analysts are closely monitoring the flow of ships from Iranian ports. “I’m literally looking at ships that are going through now,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann. “If I was a seafarer, I’d be very worried.” Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List, reported a spike in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Trump’s initial announcement. “We saw a few U turns in the wake of Trump’s original announcement last night,” he said. “The previous 48 hours saw the busiest period of traffic since the war began at the end of February, with around 30 traceable transits.”

Global Economy in the Crosshairs

With limited vessel movement currently observed, the US navy may not intercept many ships in the near term. The conflict has shifted into a standoff, with both sides deploying blockades and the global economy bearing the consequences. China, which has been instrumental in Iran’s recent diplomatic talks in Islamabad, could influence the outcome. As the world’s largest importer of Iranian oil, Beijing is vulnerable to prolonged supply disruptions. Trump’s latest action is a calculated risk, its effects yet to be fully realized.