Ships Still Stuck in the Gulf as Hormuz Remains Blocked
Three reasons ships are not going – Despite President Donald Trump’s claim that the United States had “opened” the Strait of Hormuz following a deal with Iran, maritime activity has not resumed at expected levels. Data from MarineTraffic, a global ship-tracking service, reveals that only seven vessels have passed through the strait since the announcement. Meanwhile, over 580 ships appear to be lingering in the Gulf, waiting for a safer passage. The critical waterway, which normally handles approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas exports, has remained under Iranian control since late February, when the country effectively closed it after US and Israeli strikes.
Why Traffic Hasn’t Resumed
Experts cite three major challenges preventing the return of normal shipping operations. First, lingering security concerns have captains hesitating to transit the strait. Second, the presence of mines poses a direct threat, as Iran has warned of deploying them in the region. Third, tolls imposed by Iran have created financial barriers for some ship operators. According to MarineTraffic’s tracking data, more than 250 oil tankers and over 330 cargo ships are currently in the Gulf. The data suggests that about 75% of these tankers are stationary, while the rest are in transit or anchored near key oil export hubs in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.
Satellite imagery further illustrates the situation. Many vessels are clustered near major terminals, indicating a cautious approach. However, the total number of ships in the area may be even higher, as some are not broadcasting their locations and thus do not appear in the tracking system. Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at trade analytics firm Kpler, noted that the first sign of resuming traffic would likely be a mass exodus of ships from the Gulf. “When the strait becomes navigable again, we can expect a surge in movement,” he explained. Yet, so far, this exodus has not materialized.
US Blockade and Strategic Moves
Following the deal, Trump announced the immediate removal of the US naval blockade. However, he later clarified that the blockade would stay in place until the agreement was finalized. This ambiguity has led to continued uncertainty. US Central Command reported that nine non-compliant vessels had been disabled since the blockade began on 13 April, with some targeted by Hellfire missiles. Satellite images from 15 June show four US warships stationed near the blockade line at the Gulf of Oman’s entrance, underscoring the strategic posturing.
The US has also taken steps to assert control over the region. In early April, Iran’s foreign minister initially declared the strait open, but within 24 hours, authorities reversed the decision, closing the passage and forcing over 33 vessels to turn back mid-journey. Some ships reportedly came under fire, raising fears of renewed hostilities. “The initial confidence was short-lived,” said Michelle Wiese Bockman, a senior analyst at Windward Maritime Intelligence. “Captains and operators are still evaluating the risks, and the lack of clarity is making them cautious.”
Uncertainty and the Mine Threat
Iran’s threat to place sea mines in the Gulf has added to the anxiety. The semi-official Fars news agency stated that if Iranian territory was attacked, the country would deploy “various types of sea mines, including floating ones that can be launched from the coast.” This warning has led to alerts from the Joint Maritime Information Center and Oman’s Maritime Security Centre, both identifying suspicious floating objects in the strait. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that Iran had mined significant portions of Hormuz, heightening the risk for passing vessels.
Clearing the strait of mines is seen as a critical first step to restoring full maritime traffic. Arsenio Dominguez, secretary general of the International Maritime Organization, emphasized that the removal of these mines would be essential. However, experts estimate the process could take between 30 days and six months, depending on the scale of the operation. “We simply don’t know how long it will take to secure the passage,” said Phillip Belcher of the International Association of Independent Tanker Owners. “This lack of clarity is very concerning for operators.”
The hesitation among ship captains and owners is also influenced by the recent history of attacks in the region. In early April, Iran’s declaration of the strait being “fully open” was met with skepticism after just one day, when the country swiftly closed it again. This incident, combined with the US’s continued military presence, has made many in the industry reluctant to take the first step. “There’s a lot of uncertainty,” said Martin Kelly of crisis management firm EOS Risk Group. “Captains are weighing the potential for conflict against the economic benefits of transit.”
Building Confidence Slowly
While some operators are willing to take calculated risks, others are waiting for signs that the situation is stable. Greek companies, for instance, have shown more readiness to navigate the strait, according to Das. “We may see these more risk-tolerant operators moving first,” he said. “If they succeed, it could encourage others to follow.” However, the broader industry remains on edge, with many prioritizing safety over speed. “The wait-and-see attitude is still dominant,” Das added. “Operators want to avoid being the ones to test the waters first.”
As the situation unfolds, the focus remains on the Strait of Hormuz and its role in global energy supply. The waterway, a lifeline for oil exports, continues to be a focal point of geopolitical tension. With over 580 ships waiting in the Gulf and the uncertainty surrounding mine clearance and security, the path to normalcy remains uncertain. For now, the ships remain anchored, their engines idling, as the world watches for the first movement through the strait. “Until we see consistent traffic, the situation will remain tense,” said Martin Kelly. “Every delay adds to the risk and uncertainty.”
