What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump’s ultimatum
What the US military could do if Iran fails to meet Trump’s ultimatum
Time is running out for President Donald Trump’s threat to dismantle significant portions of Iran’s civilian infrastructure by Tuesday evening, according to the US timeline. Yet, military strategists and analysts argue that the president has positioned himself in a challenging situation with his rapid-fire warnings, as the US armed forces may not be able to execute such an operation within the proposed timeframe. This dilemma has prompted experts to question whether a concentrated strike could compel the Iranian leadership to swiftly agree to a truce.
Trump declared on Monday his intent to obliterate “every bridge” and power station in Iran within four hours if an agreement isn’t reached by 20:00 EST (00:00 GMT Wednesday). He intensified his rhetoric on Tuesday, suggesting that “a whole civilization will perish” if Iran does not comply by the deadline. These declarations mark a rare escalation of presidential threats, with targeting civilian facilities potentially qualifying as a war crime under international law. Despite this, Trump brushed aside such legal concerns during a Monday press briefing.
“To meet this threat literally would be an absolute herculean task. And would it have the desired strategic effect?”
Experts emphasize that while the US possesses precise knowledge of Iran’s main nuclear sites and critical infrastructure, the logistics of neutralizing thousands of bridges across the nation’s vast territory remain daunting. The country spans roughly one-third the size of the continental United States, making rapid, widespread destruction difficult to achieve in a short window. A former senior US defense official, speaking anonymously, highlighted the impracticality of such a maneuver, suggesting that Trump may be struggling to find a more compelling threat to sway Iran’s stance.
Striking Iran’s power sector presents a more achievable option, analysts noted. Most of the country’s power plants and refineries are concentrated in three Gulf provinces—Bushehr, Khuzestan, and Hormozgan—which control a significant portion of the nation’s oil exports. Miad Maleki, a former US Treasury official and sanctions architect, explained that targeting these areas would disrupt Iran’s access to oil revenues and its vital maritime routes. “You do anything to those three provinces, you cut the regime’s access to oil revenue [and] its access to the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz,” he said, as a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif proposed a two-week extension to the deadline, urging Trump to grant more time for a deal. “To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks,” Sharif stated on X. The nation has become a crucial mediator between the US and Iran, with potential talks set to take place in Islamabad if progress is made. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Trump had been informed of the proposal but deferred a response until further notice.
Trump reiterated on Tuesday that negotiations with Iran were ongoing, describing them as “heated.” Earlier that day, Vice-President JD Vance revealed that US-Israeli strikes had already targeted a bridge in Qo, underscoring the military’s active involvement. He clarified that these actions did not signal a shift in strategy, stating that the US would continue using its tools to pressure Iran until the deadline. “The president of the United States can decide to use them, and he will decide to use them, if the Iranians don’t change their course of conduct,” Vance added.
