Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Grand National 2026: Saturday, 11 April, 16:00 BST
The Grand National, held at Aintree, is a hallmark of British horse racing. Yet, with 34 competitors, forecasting its victor remains a challenge. While historical champions may offer clues, can they reliably point toward the 2026 winner? BBC Sport examines the data to uncover patterns.
Since 2000, the race has had 25 renewals, missing one due to the 2020 pandemic. Tiger Roll’s 4-1 odds in 2019 represented the lowest-priced triumph in this era, breaking a streak since Red Rum’s 1970s dominance. Conversely, Mon Mome’s 100-1 victory in 2009 and Nick Rockett’s 33-1 win in 2025 highlight the variability of odds. The century-long average for winners hovers around 24-1, though the past decade has seen five victories at 11-1 or shorter.
Weight trends reveal little consistency. Winners over the last 25 years have ranged from 10st 3lb to 11st 9lb. If this pattern persists, the top six contenders—particularly I Am Maximus—could be overlooked, as no top weight has claimed victory since Red Rum’s 12-stone triumph in 1974. The average winning weight since 2000 sits between 10st 12lb and 10st 13lb, with 11st 6lb producing three champions.
Age also plays a role. Since 2014, no horse aged 10 or older has won, though Noble Yeats broke this trend in 2022 by becoming the first seven-year-old victor since Bogskar in 1940. Recent years favor eight or nine-year-olds, with six of the last 10 wins going to horses in those age groups. Tiger Roll, a nine-year-old, completed the double in 2019, reinforcing this trend.
Trainers and jockeys
Training stables have had a notable presence. Willie Mullins, who trained the last two winners, has yet to secure a victory since Hedgehunter in 2005. However, his six top-five finishes in the past decade suggest consistent competitiveness. Gordon Elliott, with back-to-back wins for Tiger Roll, also has four top-five placements in the last ten years. Henry de Bromhead, who claimed victory in 2021, has two notable finishes.
Jockeys, too, have left their mark. Paul Townend, with a 2024 win, aims to build on his success with I Am Maximus. Jack Kennedy and Mark Walsh have each reached the top five on four and three occasions respectively, while Danny Mullins has two top-five finishes. Together, these trainers and jockeys will handle 16 of the 34 runners in 2026.
Official ratings
Handicappers assign official ratings to horses based on performance. Of the past 16 winners, 14 have been rated 146 or higher, with 13 falling within 146–160. I Am Maximus and Nick Rockett are among the latest to earn such marks, reflecting their current form.
