As former Nato chief warns about defence spending, how much has the military shrunk?

As Former Nato Chief Warns About Defence Spending, How Much Has the Military Shrunk?

Lord Robertson, the former Labour defence secretary and NATO secretary general, has raised concerns that the UK’s security is at risk due to insufficient investment. He criticizes the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) for prioritizing welfare spending over military needs, claiming it jeopardizes the nation’s defences. BBC Verify has examined the current scale of the UK armed forces, revealing significant reductions since the end of the Cold War.

By 1990, the British Army boasted 153,000 regular troops, a figure that has dwindled to 73,790 today. The 2025 SDR aims to prevent further cuts, setting a target of maintaining at least 73,000 regular soldiers. However, the number of recruits applying to join the army dropped by 40% in 2025 compared to 2024. Reservists, too, have seen their numbers fall from 76,000 in 1990 to 25,770 currently.

The Royal Navy has also shrunk, losing 48 major combat ships in 1990—13 destroyers and 35 frigates—to just 11 frigates and 6 destroyers today. Recent delays in deploying HMS Dragon to Cyprus highlighted readiness issues, prompting criticism. Meanwhile, the RAF’s fleet has declined from over 300 combat jets in 1990 to a mix of 137 Eurofighter Typhoons and 37 F-35 Lightning II jets, which are technologically advanced but fewer in number.

We cannot defend Britain with an ever-expanding welfare budget.

Despite these cuts, the government asserts it is planning the largest sustained boost in defence spending since the Cold War. However, analysts argue this is a modest goal, as defence budgets have steadily declined since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The MoD aims to allocate 2.5% of GDP to NATO-qualifying defence by April 2027, with a vision to reach 3% in the next Parliament.

Lord Robertson specifically points to the imbalance between defence and welfare spending. While welfare costs surpassed defence in the mid-1980s, they are projected to reach 4.3% of GDP by the end of the decade, driven by rising Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claims. Though mental health factors may contribute, independent researchers are still uncertain about the exact causes behind the trend.

Additionally, the UK has committed to a NATO target of spending 5% of GDP on national security by 2035. This includes 3.5% for core defence and 1.5% for protecting infrastructure and civil preparedness. In 2025, only three NATO nations—Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia—surpassed the 3.5% threshold, while the UK’s 2.3% GDP allocation placed it near the middle of member spending.

The Ministry of Defence oversees 47 of the 213 Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP) initiatives in 2024-25. A December report from the National Audit Office (NAO) highlighted challenges, with 12 projects rated ‘Red’—indicating their completion seems unlikely. The NAO noted the MoD often struggles to meet performance, cost, and timeline targets over years. For contracts over £20 million, it now takes an average of six and a half years to finalize, far exceeding the 2025 SDR’s proposed two-year procurement timeline.