‘This is far worse’: When conflict 2,000 miles away compounds civil war at home

‘This is far worse’: When conflict 2,000 miles away compounds civil war at home

The Chain Reaction of Global Disruptions

This is far worse – Maung Nu Sein, a 72-year-old farmer in western Myanmar, now faces a dire dilemma as planting season approaches. His crops depend on fuel for plowing and fertilizer to sustain rice production, yet the vessels transporting these essentials are stuck 2,000 miles distant due to Iran’s control over a vital global waterway. With expenses escalating, the farmer is calculating his survival. Can he endure when the combined costs of fuel and farming exceed the income from his rice sales?

The conflict in the Middle East, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has created a ripple effect across Myanmar. A civil war, ignited by a military coup in 2021, has persisted for five years, displacing millions and fragmenting the nation into regions governed by the military and civilian factions. The war has crippled the economy, disrupted healthcare, and left many struggling to meet basic needs. Now, the strain of the Iranian crisis is adding to this burden, pushing rural communities to the brink.

Myanmar’s agricultural sector, which forms the backbone of its economy, is heavily reliant on imports for 90% of its fuel and nearly all of its fertilizer. These resources, sourced from China, the Middle East, and neighboring countries, are critical for maintaining food production. However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global trade, has thrown supply chains into chaos. This narrow waterway, through which a third of all seaborne fertilizer passes, is a lifeline for farmers in Asia, connecting arid deserts to lush fields. Its disruption has forced many to rethink their livelihoods.

The Farmer’s Plight in Rakhine State

Maung Nu Sein’s situation is emblematic of the challenges faced by thousands in Rakhine state. His family’s ability to grow rice, a primary staple in Myanmar, has been severely tested. “There are many farmers who are abandoning their land as they have been struggling with everything,” he told CNN. The rising prices of fuel and fertilizer, exacerbated by the war and military blockades, have made it impossible for some to sustain their farms. For Maung Nu Sein, the costs have spiraled dramatically. “Plowing a field used to cost only $24 worth of fuel before, and then it increased to $240 and then to $476. It has gone beyond our capability to continue farming,” he said.

“The consequences of the Middle East war are having a huge impact here to people already being affected by civil war. This is far worse,” Maung Nu Sein said.

Rice, which feeds much of the population, has become a precarious commodity. Last year, Myanmar’s rice exports generated $861 million, but domestic production is now threatened by soaring costs. The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that a prolonged conflict could push an additional 45 million people worldwide into acute food insecurity by mid-2026. Already, 12.5 million individuals in Myanmar are struggling with hunger, many residing in remote areas or displaced by the ongoing war.

Maung Nu Sein’s personal experience highlights the severity of the crisis. He has been forced to cut his farmland in half, unable to afford the full cost of cultivation. “The rice we sell does not even cover the cost of fuel, let alone workers’ costs,” he said. This financial strain is forcing families to adapt in drastic ways. “This war is increasingly choking us. All we can do is storm through this by eating half a meal per day,” he added.

The Broader Economic Impact

Myanmar’s reliance on imported fuel and fertilizer has made it particularly vulnerable to global supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for oil shipments, has become a battleground that affects everything from energy costs to agricultural production. With fuel shortages, transportation of goods has grown more expensive, driving up prices for energy, food, medicine, and other essentials. This has created a cycle of inflation that is difficult for farmers to escape.

Myanmar Rice Federation chairman Ye Min Aung emphasized the growing pressure on the agricultural sector. “Higher prices for fuel, fertilizer, and transport are putting additional pressure on farmers, millers, traders, and exporters of the staple crop,” he said. The WFP has echoed these concerns, noting that the timing of the conflict is particularly devastating. As the farming season approaches, fertilizer demand peaks, and water shortages threaten rice cultivation. “We’re approaching the time when fertilizer is at its highest demand, rice is being produced, water is required, so really the timing cannot be worse for the people of Myanmar,” said WFP regional director Samir Wanmali.

The military’s control of the coastal regions has further complicated matters. By restricting access to ports, the conflict has limited the availability of essential supplies. Combined with the rising costs of fuel and fertilizers, this has left farmers in a difficult position. “Some still hold on to working on some parts of their land because they need to eat,” Maung Nu Sein explained. “If we entirely abandon it, the whole community and society will fail because rice is a primary source of food here in our country.”

Despite his challenges, Maung Nu Sein says he fares better than others in his village. Outside his fields, he sees displaced individuals begging for food. “Many are starving out there,” he said. The economic strain of the war is not just financial; it is a crisis of survival. As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the question is whether Myanmar’s farmers can continue to produce enough to feed their nation. Without reliable access to fuel and fertilizers, the risk of a deeper food shortage looms large, threatening to compound the suffering caused by the civil war.